Pro-Europeans often talk about the new brand of foreign policy that the EU offers, where it tempts nations with benefits of association and membership in exchange for reform. Its results have been mixed, often undermined by Europe’s lack of foreign policy mandate and ponderous lack of clear foreign policy direction. However, in the case of Serbia-Montenegro and the hunt for Ratko Mladić, it could well be working.
The arrest of Mladić was one of the key criteria that needed to be fulfilled for commencement of the third round of negotiations on the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) between the EU and Serbia-Montenegro. Deadlines for his arrest set by Carla del Ponte, the war crimes prosecutor driving for the capture of both him and his former political boss Radovan Karadžić, have been missed and moved several times before this point. I’m sure that as the deadline approached many of us assumed that the EU would simply move it again, possibly with a “stern” reprimand. There was certainly doubt that the EU would take action prior to the May 21st referendum on independence for the Republic of Montenegro, considering that the EU does not wish the current union of the two republics to end. Cessation of accession negotiations will certainly have a detrimental affect on this vote, as evinced by the speaker of the Montenegrin Parliament who said that the disruption of the SAA talks was “another reason why Montenegro should be an independent state”. However regardless of these concerns, Olli Rehn, the EU Enlargement Commissioner, ended the negotiations, citing concerns about the rule of law “Serbia must show that no-one is above the law and that anyone indicted for serious crimes will face justice”.
The Serbian reaction stands testimony to the fact that the suspension of talks came as somewhat of a surprise. Miroljub Labus, the Serbian Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the liberal G-17 Plus party in the governmental coalition, resigned his position and prompted momentary fears of a governmental collapse and snap election. His letter of resignation is scathing towards Vojislav Koštunica’s government “The European Union suspended stabilisation talks because your government, contrary to your promise, did not secure the political conditions for the continuation of the talks…” The political collapse that some predicted didn’t occur as the other three ministers from G-17 Plus did not follow Labus out of government, however Koštunica’s position remains delicate. Vuk Drasković, the Serbian Foreign Minister, has demanded sackings of all of the security chiefs that have failed to bring Mladić to justice. He stated: “Mladić must be arrested…in the next ten days. After that, it will be too late.” Koštunica, whilst claiming that definite deadlines had never been agreed for the capture, told parliament that efforts would need to be redoubled to find Mladić and bring him to justice. One cabinet minister, emerging from the meeting, revealed to Associated Press that all services were ordered to “quadruple their efforts” to find Mladić, who Koštunica described as having “seriously harmed our state and national interests.”
Such rhetoric is obviously an attempt to undermine the support that the general still commands in the Serbian countryside, where many still see him as a patriotic hero and not the Butcher of Srebenica and Sarajevo. However the words have also been backed up with action. On Friday police sealed off a Belgrade neighbourhood and searched several houses and on Sunday police and helicopters searched the western Serbian town of Valijevo, detaining two further people accused of helping Mladić evade justice (ten are currently in custody). The immediate response to this is that such manoeuvres are purely for show and are a flimsy attempt to show that the authorities are making a real effort to locate the fugitive. Dejan Anastasijević, a Belgrade security analyst, said just that: “[the police] themselves don’t believe they can find Mladić in such a way, but…they are trying to create an impression that they are doing something.” The official line strongly denies this. Rasim Ljajić, who is the minister in charge of co-operating with the war crimes tribunal, claims: “All civilian and military (security) services are concentrated on locating Mladić. We are trying to convince the international community that it is in the interest of this country and its people that Mladić be extradited to The Hague.” Which side you believe right now is essentially a coin-toss. You need to wonder why these measures were not implemented until days after the EU’s actions and not in the weeks beforehand. Is it because these are simply phoney manoeuvres implemented by a panicking government facing political ruin, or is it because the sudden and unexpected cessation of the SAA talks has convinced Koštunica that the political storm that handing over Mladić might create is less dangerous than the one he would face if the SAA talks remain suspended and Montenegro votes for independence in its referendum? In the latter case the snap election predicted last weekend would almost certainly occur and the opposition ultra-nationalist Radical Party has a clear lead in polls. Faced with this Koštunica may well have decided to face down the nationalists (who form the bulk of Mladić’s support) now by arresting the general rather than at a ballot-box showdown.
Whether or not this is the case will only be proven by Mladić arriving in The Hague to face justice. If he does, then the actions of the EU cannot be denied to have been the main driving force behind his capture. If he does not, then Rehn was right to suspend talks with the government as a country that harbours fugitives accused of genocide has no part in the European Union. In his words: “Our initial goal of reaching concluding the negotiations by this year 2006 is still within reach, but only if there is a dramatic improvement in the cooperation with the ICTY [International Criminal Tribunal of the former Yugoslavia] so that negotiations can resume without delay” Time is running out for Serbia-Montenegro and if Vojislav Koštunica wishes to retain his grip on power he will have to act quickly before the last sands disappear. Quite possibly, by association, time is also running out for Ratko Mladić. If so, I for one will give a grateful nod to Olli Rehn and the European Union for putting the man responsible for the Massacre of Srebenica into the dock.