Jan Zahradil, a Czech MEP, opened his keynote speech at the European Foundation’s conference in November with the statement: “we have a window of opportunity [to reform the EU] starting right now…[because] the paradigm of EU integration has run down”.
He presumed however that reform would have to be evolutionary, rather than ‘big-bang’. But 2007 could be a tumultuous year in the EU. It seems that wherever you turn at the moment there are huge contradictions and differences – if they are ever properly addressed, a crisis (and an opportunity for reform?) may well be looming.
Let’s take the obvious starting point: the Constitution. At the weekend Deutsche Welle reported Angela Merkel as saying: “I would consider it an historical failure if we do not succeed in working out the substance of the constitutional treaty by the time the next European elections take place”. That means the work must be done next year in the German Presidency. A meeting has apparently been organised in Madrid for the 18 countries that have ratified the Constitution on 26 January. A separate meeting will be convened on 27 February for those who have not. Division. Where’s the compromise, where’s the consultation? I cannot see for one how a British (or for that matter Dutch or French) PM could possibly agree to the near-original text without a referenda. That’s a big problem for the EU.
There also seems to be a huge contradiction between Merkel’s insistence on reviving the Constitution and her other pronounced goal for the German Presidency: competitiveness. On which she commented in November: “I wonder whether the directives and ‘acquis communitaire’ are monuments that we cannot destroy”. Not with a Constitution you won’t.
More fundamentally, there are deep divisions across Member States on the entire competitiveness and liberalisation agenda. Just last week it was reported that France and Germany have launched a joint effort to block energy market liberalisation, having informed Jose Manuel Barroso that they will not accept the forced dismantling of groups such as E-on and RWE of Germany, and EDF and GDF of France. France, along with Italy, are also leading the charge to oppose the liberalisation of postal services (supported by quite a few Member States). The question is whether proposals will just be watered down to a compromise that suits no-one, as with the MiFD directive, or whether there will be a proper show-down. The latter is more likely if France in particular maintain Sarkozy’s attitude “I want a Europe that protects” and de Villepan’s ‘national champions’ that is even getting on the Commission’s nerves.
Enlargement is another quandary. Germany’s, but most particularly France’s, approach to Turkey is, to put it mildly, ridiculously unhelpful. The French parliament voting to make the denial of the Armenian genocide a criminal offence, was possibly the most petty swipe at Turkey’s accession imaginable. EU Foreign Ministers last week agreed to suspend eight of Turkey’s 35 negotiating ‘chapters’ for Turkey failing to recognise Northern Cyprus. Pressure from France and Germany has also led the EU to integrate ‘absorption capacity’ in its dealings with potential Member States. This will no doubt be used as a handy tool to put a break on accession whenever it suits them. The UK, on the other hand, has made it clear – and rightly so – that for the EU to close the door on Turkey and other potential Member States would be a ‘big mistake’. Enlargement is the EU’s most successful policy.
There is now also much discontent within the Eurozone. De Villepan stated quite openly last week that it is split in two camps: "There are some states that are happy with the current situation, but for France it is not acceptable. This is a tough fight that we are going to have to carry out at a political level.” This situation is the ECB’s independence in the setting of interest rates and exchange rate policy for the Euro. Yet it is difficult to see how it could work otherwise. France cannot set the rate it wants and disregard everyone else. That would mean a return to the Franc….
The fact is that if any of these issues really come to the crunch, there will be a big fight. Surely the only workable solution would be a multi-speed EU and the repeal of acquis communitaire.