New Year is a time for leaving the past behind, turning over a new leaf, making new beginnings and looking to the future. So too for the European Union, apparently.
Midnight on Sunday and the EU’s political elite were cheerfully (and grandly) “welcoming two new members into the family”, according to Jose Manuel Barroso, but behind the fireworks there is concern.
It is questionable what affect the 41bn euros in development funds to be spent by 2013 will have, given the corruption and low institutional competency in the EU itself and in Romania and Bulgaria. In addition the “safeguard clauses”, remaining trade barriers, lack of freedom of movement, strict instructions to reduce corruption and crime and a ban on some food exports mean the new members will not even be treated as second class member states (as several of those recently-joined complain), but third class. Bulgaria and Romania - not so much close family then, more slightly obscure distant relatives.
The accession of two new states has been presented as a successful completion of the enlargement begun in 2004 and an example of the European project’s continued progression. However, the distinct and continued hierarchy within the EU does not reflect this progressive image, or the notion - as hoped for by Angela Merkel - of “succeeding together”.
The current situation can only lead to a growing sense of division and a pecking order existing within the Union – not exactly the perfect environment for a fresh start. A fresh start and renewed energy are precisely what Germany will need if its presidency is to be remotely successful (and not a repeat of the UK’s presidency last year, which began with Tony Blair’s promise of a shake up, but saw few changes of significance).
Contrary to the hopes of Mrs Merkel it seems almost certain that the EU of 2007 will be dominated, not by the future or the new, but the same old issues and divisions.
The Constitution looks likely to be reheated, rather than re-imagined, after its carcass has been picked at sufficiently to satisfy all those fearful of producing anything significant enough to require referenda.
The 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome has created uncertainty within the EU as to how it should best be celebrated, highlighting the self-consciousness of its institutions, desperately looking to future, but only in order to avoid having to acknowledge the past failings.
March will see the signing of the Berlin Declaration, stating the Union’s fundamental values and aims for the future. This could be a genuine opportunity to reinvigorate and reform the EU, to draw out a rough sketch, if not a blueprint, of what the EU’s future should be about. Unsurprisingly, this has been beyond its members and thus far there does not even appear to be a draft of the statement, due to be made in less than eight weeks.
The reality is there is unlikely to be any ‘fresh start’ for the new year, new EU presidency, the new member states, or the EU itself – instead we seem destined for more of that reference to the past that has so restricted attempts to reform.