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February 03, 2006
If There’s Hell Below, Is This Where We Shall All be Spending Xmas?
The rapidly escalating war of Mohammed’s turban may yet serve to establish the reverse of Karl Marx’s famous adage that history repeats itself, first as tragedy then as farce.
Despite the ferocity of the current posturing of outraged Muslims throughout the world over the continued unrepentance of a Danish newspaper for having last September published irreverent cartoons of Mohammed, the true significance of the current rumpus seems to have eluded the world’s media. This is that it presages a far worse coming conflagration.
At best, what it heralds is full-scale conventional war in the Middle East, with much spillover in Europe and America in terms of Islamist terror bombings there. At worst, we await a full-scale nuclear Armageddon.
What makes me inclined to make such a rosy prognostication?
Well, consider the following penumbra of events that surround the current rumpus.
First, there is the curious delay between the first appearance of the cartoons when they provoked only modest local disturbance in Denmark by comparison with the global fury they are currently provoking.
What has changed in the meantime to account for the escalation in the scale and intensity of the reaction?
Two things have occurred. The first of these is more directly connected with the cartoons than the second, but in reality, it is but an epi-phenomenon of the second. The second event, although, superficially, only remotely connected with the cartoons, is the real reason they appear to have provoked such a belated escalation of outrage. It also holds the key to why the current rumpus presages something far, far worse.
The first event was a tour of the Middle East last December undertaken by a group of Danish imams to publicise the cartoons. With them, however, they reportedly took, not only the offending cartoons originally published but several other far more offensive ones that, apparently, they had themselves been responsible for producing. In other words, the outrage over the cartoons has been deliberately engineered by a fabrication of the grounds for it.
But who wanted or caused the heat to become so turned up and why at that this particular moment?
The clue to the answers to this second question lies in a second event almost certain to occur to today, if it has not already happened by the time this blog gets posted. This is the likely decision today in Vienna by the International Atomic Energy Agency to report Iran to the UN Security Council for continuing with its programme of nuclear research. If that decision should occur, when the UN Security Council gets round to considering what form of sanctions to impose on Iran, guess to whom chairmanship of the Council will have passed. You’ve got it... plucky little Denmark.
Suddenly, the pieces fall into shape. The rumpus suddenly escalated, complete with fabricated offensive cartoons, to so enflame Muslim opinion that Denmark could be intimidated directly through a threatened Muslim boycott of its goods, or indirectly by the EU fearful of a wider boycott, into voting in favour of Iran.
Whatever the Security Council eventually may decide over sanctions against Iran, it is unlikely to deter that country from continuing to develop the technology needed to manufacture nuclear weapons, Prospect of its acquisition of them is likely to trigger a nuclear arms race in the region, as well as, sooner or later, oblige Israel or the US to make some pre-emptive strike against it to prevent its programme from reaching completion.
At best, such a strike will succeed, but not without precipitating a conventional war in the Middle East the repercussions of which will not escape Europe in the form of suicide bombings. At worst, pre-emption will fail, Iran will acquire nuclear weapons, and, with a President of that country as gung-ho as its current one, we all receive tickets for a one-way trip to oblivion.
It is not a thrilling prospect for sure. But that is all the more reason why the West needs to remain strong, united, and resolved to resist the challenge of militant Islam. If Europe has recently been made more so than it has been of late, it has to thank for that, paradoxically, the malicious militancy of the mullahs and imams whose fabrication of the grounds of the current crisis has given the West a second wake-up call to the true scale and nature of the current danger that it faces to which all too many Europeans failed to have become alerted by the first wake-up call given on September 11th.
This is the first blog I have written for Civitas about which I hope and pray that the analysis of current events offered in it is completely wrong. As the author of a book published in 1987 which to an often incredulous audience at the time bid, as its title put it, ‘A Farewell to Marx’, and who subsequently predicted in another later book a tragedy like the London suicide bombings, I am truly deeply fearful that I am not.
Posted by David Conway at February 3, 2006 12:54 PM
Comments
My first visit to Civitas and I was not disappointed. I found my way via Melanie Phillips' blog and I am not disappointed. However, I fear your analysis is correct. As I said in a hurried email to Carsten Juste of Jyllands-Posten last week just after the story broke, I believe this worldwide outrage is 'orchestrated' just as Abu Ghraib and the Koran splashing at GITMO were all over-hyped and orchestrated outrage, first by the Muslims egged on by their imams at the mosques on direct orders from Iran and Saudia Arabia, and also by a willing a compliant MSM (media) which is another story, after this is all over, that I want to see delved into. The complicity of the MSM around the globe, NOT just in Arab countries which I expect, but CNN, the Washington Post, the New York Times. They all parrot the same line and now are not even printing the cartoons. Either their major stock is held by Arabs now or Muslims of some other nationality, or they've been given a 'Golden Handshake' of some sort to comply.
We must each prepare for war on our very streets. Last fall in Australia (and again this week on Bondi Beach) eastern looking men as they were characterized, were seen to pull up 7 and 8 to a car, with baseball bats and pipes, and standing on the suburb streets, daring the Australian residents to come out of their houses. Just DARING them to show their faces IN THEIR OWN NEIGHBOURHOODS. At the time I said to RomeoMike's blog, this looks like a worldwide neighbourhood war and they mean to intimidate us beforehand into understanding that they can 'reach out and touch us' anytime they like...anywhere.
I say, each and EVERY attack should be met with the response of an attack on an installation in Iran. EACH AND EVERY ATTACK IN THE WEST, WHEREVER IT OCCURS, EVEN IN MALAYSIA, should draw an instant response against Iran since it is all part of Iran's 'Proxy War' against the west. Saudi Arabia is also funding and fuelling it through their Wahhabist imams in the mosques. They can be dealt with later. They represent no military threat...not in the way Iran does. Their day will come. It is Ahmadinejad and the mullahs who are pushing this. I wondered why he was so excited all the time he could hardly stand still, capering and dancing up and down. He was like a cat who'd swallowed a canary. I knew something was up and I guess he was given the go-ahead to provoke the fight with the West.
One thing they obviously fear is mockery and shame. We should remember that. Charlie Chaplin knew that lesson. We'd do well to publish more cartoons, not less!
Posted by: foreign devil at February 5, 2006 07:41 AM
Excellent article, one of the best Ive read as far as explaining the strange timing of these events.
Wonder if any Iranian money has been funding these particular Imams travels??
Posted by: thefrollickingmole at February 5, 2006 09:00 AM
David:
I wonder if this is more about the war in Iraq and Iran's nuclear weapons development than the EU or the UN. It seems to me that nothing the EU or UN would do vis-a-vis Iran's nuclear ambitions would ultimately stop them anyway. So then what is the purpose of this engineered outrage? (Assuming we accept the premise that that is what this is, and that it was not just some independent Dutch imans). Could it be that this is about stirring up opposition to the US in Iraq? If the mullahs of Iran could convince the Muslims in Iraq (especially the Shiite) that they are in a war with the west, they could make the situation in Iraq very difficult for the US. What's more, any action against Iran by the US (or anyone) would be interpreted as being against Islam, further worsening (from our pov) the situation in Iraq. Note that there have already been protest about the cartoons in Iraq.
Posted by: Spirit93 at February 5, 2006 10:28 AM
Thank you for the outstanding article. Consider that no one (besides Winston Churchill) seems to have developed an in-depth critical review of the history of the islamic expansion even today. Consider the theory that what we are dealing with is an albeit complex and longlasting and huge version of the religious cults of the sixties (re- Jim Jones, etc ...). To call a spade a spade, that islam is fundamentally a totalitarian warrior cult that masquerades as a religion. In addition, that its foundation is expansionist, imperialist and totalitarian in outlook. In particular the totalitarian aspects preceded other short-lived cases like the nazis by well over a thousand years. Consider that indeed, a thousand years before the nazi fascists we have islamic imperialists forcing local residents to wear badges indicating their religious dhimmi status- like the crosses of David of the nazi era. It is entirely appropriate to combine the words islam and fascism as islamic fascism. The word has to get out that this is today's reality behind islam.
Posted by: Mr. Freeman at February 6, 2006 03:56 AM
I agree with your analysis and think it is excellent. However, wouldn't Iran be better off biding time as a "peaceful" nation until after it had the nuke weapons? I feel all this uproar by muslems around the world will only harden the west's opinion that they must NOT get nuclear weapons. Can you imagine how much worse this would be right now if all these islamic governements that are demanding we suppress our media had nukes? How do you say no to them?
Posted by: frank at February 6, 2006 05:41 PM
The statement that the imams spread their own evil drawings in the Middle East is just paranoid conspiracy-making. The ones already made are offending enough to make moslems angry. I don't think you realize just how many internal differences there is in the moslem world - most sunni-muslims are more afraid of Iran getting nuclear bombs than we are. The imams who went on the diplomatic mission to the Middle East, concerning the cartoons - were sunni. Thus you crazy conspiracy-theory is plainly wrong.
Posted by: Shar-Kali-Sharri at February 6, 2006 10:58 PM
Frank, your idea that Iran should play the peaceful agent (like North Korea) is an interesting one, but I do not think it takes into account the overpowering pride of the fascist.
With the Islamic population of Denmark up in arms, if David's theory is correct about the Iranian nuclear connection, consider the following:
The Islamofascist movement's strengths are it's grass-roots nature and the ingenuity of independent and semi-independent operatives. A culture of burgeoning unibombers, as it were- intelligent and vengeful with nothing to lose and everything to gain
Take an angry, volatile mix (islam), shake it up (the cartoons, imam propaganda), then throw a match at it (sanctions against Iran) and you've got an independent bomber taking out a government building, or the head of state, or whomever is a convenient and effective target.
Now everyone in the west will fear the wrath of Islam, because they can strike anywhere, at anyone (in their eyes). Would this deter the US or Israel from attacking Iran's nuclear sites? Maybe not, but it would empower a lot of next-wave bombers here and abroad to take matters into their own hands. That is what the Islamofascists want, worldwide guerrilla warfare, because it plays on their strengths and that's what they think they can win.
I'm sure it's more complex than that, but I'm trying to keep it simple.
Posted by: Jim at February 7, 2006 12:14 AM
"just as Abu Ghraib and the Koran splashing at GITMO were all over-hyped and orchestrated outrage"
So was the rioting after Sharon walked on the Temple Mount. The intifada started weeks before that, but he was set up so they could blame it on him.
Posted by: Yehudit at February 7, 2006 06:16 AM
My thoughts exactly. Since this started, I had a feeling that the escalation of protests and Iran's nuke program were related. The actions or inaction of Syria during the embassy destruction strengthened the case. Iran and Syria have formed an alliance to turn the tables on the West.
Posted by: The Johnson at February 7, 2006 03:54 PM
One problem with the point - Argentina is about to take up the Presidency of the UNSC not Denmark
http://www.un.org/Docs/sc/unsc_members.html
Denmark won't take up the Presidency until June - Iran will be dealt with by the UNSC in March.
Posted by: Russell at February 7, 2006 11:24 PM
Has anyone noticed the worldwide closing of the ranks?
Posted by: Cheapshot911 at February 8, 2006 03:57 AM
Thanks for an outstanding analysis re Iran's hand in this. Yosef Bodansky wrote an excellent book entitled "Osama Bin Laden: The Man Who Declared War on America", which traces Iran's fingerprints from the hostage crisis in 1979 to 9/11. Interestingly, his book was originally published in 1999, well before the murders on 9/11. I highly recommend it.
I, too, fear that a military conflict with Iran will be necessary, sooner rather than later, the result of which will indeed be a global guerilla war on the west. I fear none shall go unscathed.
Posted by: suwana at February 8, 2006 07:00 PM
Most of what deserved to be said about the Mohammed cartoon controversy has already been said, along with much that deserved to be left unsaid. One relatively neglected point, however, is the striking misrepresentation (often by both sides) of what the most controversial cartoons themselves were trying to say. Cartoonists, armed only with a drawing and a half dozen words, cannot create perceptions of reality. Rather, they utilize widely shared perceptions as a starting point for reinforcing or rebutting those perceptions. I invite readers to understand the meaning of the cartoons by answering the following multiple choice question. Which is a widely shared perception of reality among non-Muslims?
a) Mohammed was a terrorist
b) Mohammed was a vile and foolish creature deserving of mockery and ridicule
c) Most Muslims are terrorists
d) Islam has been widely and increasingly used as a justification for murderous violence that poses a serious threat to global harmony
If you answered a, b, or c, I suppose you have a right to believe the cartoons ridiculed Mohammed or stereotyped Muslims, but I also expect you have been living on a different planet from the rest of us. I believe that the vast majority of those who have seen the cartoon of a bomb-turbaned Mohammed accurately interpreted it not as mockery or ridicule but as a warning. We ignore the lit fuse at the peril of all of us - Muslim and non-Muslim alike. The cartoons are hardly the latest warning. A song, “Fear Of God”, written early in 2001, anticipated some of the events that have followed (see “No Other Prize” at http://bluesandfolk.com) and the fatwa issued against Salman Rushdie was an even earlier harbinger.
Posted by: fmoolten at February 10, 2006 07:42 PM
what a load of hysterical clap trap-
there is no threat to western civilisation-
is the west so feeble that for it to survive and secular1ity to triumph it has to ban a piece of cloth in france?
no one is questioning your right to freedom of speech
-but in the current climate dialogue between moderates of both civilisation-
but if push comes to shove if I die I have the comfort of an afterlife-what about you?
Posted by: tanweerhussain at February 13, 2006 03:40 PM
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