Who will be the bête noire of Europe?

Anastasia De Waal, 7 October 2009

Of all the concerns that the Conservative Party are currently facing, Europe is but one of them, writes Ahmed Mehdi. The Irish decision to vote ‘yes’ on Friday 2 October has reignited a much-maligned question: what is the Conservative position on calling a referendum over the Lisbon Treaty?

In an unscheduled speech from the Conservative conference podium, Mr Cameron said: “Let’s make this week not one where we talk to ourselves. Let this be the week we talk to the country.” Mr Cameron has promised a referendum if the Tories win the election and Lisbon has not been ratified by all EU members by then. He refuses to say what he would do if the treaty is already in force. The lack of a clear plan has led pro- and anti-European Tories to offer differing explanations of what the party would do in office. Mr Cameron and most Conservatives are opposed to the treaty, which they say would reduce British sovereignty.

Kenneth Clarke, who has backed Lisbon, returned the shadow cabinet this year after promising to toe the party line. Asked if he would campaign for a “Yes” vote, Mr Clarke said: “I will wait to see if we have a referendum and I will see if either side invites me.” What is certain however is that Mr Cameron does not want the Conservative Party to be reduced to the status of a single-issue pressure group. However, Mr Cameron will invariably have to face a very difficult decision over Europe if the Tories win the next election. It is most likely that the president of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, will put pressure on the Czechs to ratify the treaty over the next few weeks. Some Conservatives have pinned their hopes on Mr Klaus delaying until election time so a Tory manifesto can include a commitment to hold a popular British vote on the Lisbon Treaty. The Czech president has however personally warned Tory Eurosceptics not to “wait for my decision”. “I am afraid that the British people should have been doing something really much earlier. There will never be another referendum on the treaty in Europe,” he said at the weekend. The Lisbon Treaty, which resurrects proposals contained in the old EU Constitution, must be ratified by parliaments or popular votes in all 27 EU member states. The EU is desperate to complete the formal legalities of Lisbon Treaty ratification so it can press on with creating the new institutions of President, foreign minister and a European diplomatic service. Publicly nothing can be done about filling these jobs and building a European External Action Service until and unless the Czech president puts pen to paper. With the pressure mounting on Vaclav Klaus, and with Polish obstruction nipped in the bud, Mr Cameron and the conservative party will not only have to focus on slashing record-high national debt, but the troubled question of Lisbon and the ever-growing demand for a referendum.