Cameron must be clear on the EU with both Brussels and Britain

Anna Sonny, 15 October 2015

As of this week, the EU ‘In’ and ‘Out’ campaigns have all launched in Britain, kick-starting the EU debate amongst the British public ahead of the referendum. Prime Minister David Cameron has not come down on either side; this is perhaps because he is straddling the two, hoping that the growing threat of Brexit might force the EU to do a deal with the UK since the UK is such an important market for the 28 member bloc. It is also highly likely that any specific demands he makes will be criticised by Eurosceptics for not being strident enough. But can he rely on this continued strategy of ambiguity?

The longer the prime minister leaves it to make his position clear, the longer the debate drags out. This makes it more likely that fatigue with the issue will set in amongst both the British public and EU leaders, who he needs on his side to support his reforms.

This week senior diplomats in Brussels said renegotiation talks have not progressed because the prime minister has not been clear about what he wants. Domestically the referendum campaigns can fill in the gaps of uncertainty for the British public, using facts and figures to predict how harmful Brexit could be economically and how the government might be able to soften the blow. But at the EU level, the prime minister must now table specific demands – his success in his renegotiation plans depends on it.

EU leaders will hear a preliminary assessment of the UK’s EU membership negotiations at the summit in Brussels today but the real political discussions might be delayed until March, because of Cameron’s ambiguity.

In the meantime, while Cameron lets the UK’s position in the EU languish in uncertainty, Ukip leader Nigel Farage has more time to upset European leaders whose backing Cameron needs, like President François Hollande. Last week, in a very heated rebuttal to Farage’s claim that France’s voice in Europe is little more than a pipsqueak, the French president told the Ukip leader he should leave the EU if he doesn’t like it, to a round of applause from the European Parliament.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker caused confusion yesterday by appearing to suggest that Britain doesn’t need the EU. He is adamant that he said ‘I personally do think’ not ‘I personally don’t think’ the UK needs the EU. It could have just been a mumble, or it could have been a Freudian slip, but Juncker did say in the same speech that he is ‘150% in favour of having Britain as a constructive member of the European Union.’ The fact is that EU leaders need to know what Cameron wants if they are going to back his renegotiation demands – Cameron needs to be clear.