The EU red card could hurt UK interests as well as help them

Jonathan Lindsell, 2 February 2016

One of the main achievements David Cameron is claiming from his renegotiation talks with European heads of state and the EU Council President is a new red card system for national parliaments. It seems that if 55% of parliaments (those of 16 countries) vote against an EU proposal then it will be stopped.

At first glance this appears to be a substantial change. Previously national parliaments had only a weak oversight role, while the European Parliament could block laws it disliked. People saw this as a democratic problem since fewer people vote for or care about their MEPs.

However the 55% red card system may be a very minor change in practice. Already if over 45% of government ministers, executives from the EU countries, vote against a measure, it is stopped. This is part of the current voting system in the Council of Ministers.

Because in most EU countries, governments are made of a party or parties that command a majority in their parliaments, it is hard to see many parliaments rebelling against an EU motion that their own minsters approve. Successful rebellions in the UK parliament are rare, but to block an EU law it would take up to 15 other parliaments to defy their governments too.

The chances of a block working would increase if a minority of allied governments did oppose a motion, and carried their parliaments with them. If, say, Britain and 10 small EU countries’ governments all wanted to block a motion, then they would need to build a coalition with five other states’ parliaments whose governments were in favour of the motion. That is still a large task, but one that might work for vital or contentious topics.

A danger on the other side, though, is that the red card could be used against an EU law that the UK government actually wants. Cameron’s renegotiation requests included making the EU more competitive – this includes measures like creating a capital markets union for loans, a digital single market for e-commerce, and concluding many more free trade agreements. Free trade agreements are contentious in many EU states, outright distrusted in some, while other members may be unwilling to accept EU laws on banking.

We know that proposals like the EU-USA deal TTIP are unpopular in some EU states and could be just the kind of issue other parliaments rebel over.  In the mid-term then, we could see a coalition of EU member parliaments coming together to block an EU proposal that is in Cameron’s renegotiation. The red card proposal does not appear to be much of a success and only theoretically extends UK sovereignty. It is unlikely that it could be used often, and where it might be used, other EU members could block reforms that Britain’s government wants.