Representing the Unrepresented

Civitas, 26 January 2009

More foreboding. The run-up to the summer European Parliamentary elections has officially started. Some disquieting new findings were released last week (courtesy of YouGov): writes Lara Natale …

– 64% of the population demand radical change in Britain’s relationship with the EU, including an end to political integration and the supremacy of the European Court. 48% of those favour a looser relationship based on trade and voluntary co-operation, whilst a further 16% support withdrawal from the EU. By comparison, only 22% of the population supports Britain remaining an EU member on current terms.
A majority lack of satisfaction with the current relationship status shows that either the benefits of EU membership aren’t palpable or tangible enough to the lives of the British public, or that we are still somewhat averse to the very notion of being involved with the EU. The fact between 60-80 % of our laws now come directly from Brussels could be perceived as threatening to our sovereignty and this is inexorably linked with our resistance to joining the Euro.
– 64% of the public would vote no to Britain joining the Euro, compared to only 24% who would support Euro membership. The economic crisis has made people less likely to support joining the single currency – with 27% made less likely to support adopting the Euro, compared to 18% who are more likely to support adopting the currency.
Even though the Pound has weakened considerably against the Euro, a considerable majority still do not wish to join. At the present time it is unlikely the Eurozone would want us to join it either, as having an economy the size of ours gaining entry would have a negative impact on the Euro itself, one of heavy destabilisation. The UK has been disproportionately hit by the Credit Crunch given its reliance on financial services, with the precipitous decline of Sterling now coming from the fact that, having engaged in recapitalisation of the banks and the VAT cut, the UK is adding to its debt pile (it borrows this money by issuing more Government Bonds) very quickly and in large measure at a time when the revenue base is threatened. It is said that the UK’s debt-to-GDP ratio has effectively doubled from something around 40% to 80% (Brown always trumpeted the fact we had a low debt-to-GDP ratio by international standards – not any more). The debt will have to be paid back, by the next generation -by this we mean beyond the life of this Government- and the markets are spooked by the possibility that the UK will have to a) pay more to borrow {i.e. investors will demand to be paid a higher interest rate in return for lending to the UK Government}, making things even more uncomfortable and may, however unlikely, b) request assistance from the International Monetary Fund, and c) it will not be able to pay its debts as they fall due (i.e. become “insolvent”). Ken Clarke QC MP, who last week returned to frontbench politics as Shadow Business Secretary, later said it would be the “worst time” for Britain to consider joining the Euro. “Politically, it’s not going to be on the agenda in this country for many years. It’s not real and it’s probably not going to be a political issue in this country during my political lifetime,” he said. Writing in the Independent the leader of the Liberal Democrats, Nick Clegg, argues that “The euro should never be introduced in Britain without public consent confirmed in a referendum”, but that Britain must be ready to “think anew” about answers to the current financial crisis.
– 59% of the population believes the British Government should disregard the EU’s VAT rules, should they feel that a further cut is necessary in the 2009 Budget to combat the recession. Only 25% believe the Government should obey the EU’s rules.
Perhaps these statistics are unsurprising, given that the UK is not part of the Single Currency. We are fiscally wired to think of ourselves as a separate economy and thus it is difficult to think of EU VAT rules and other Brussels tax legislation as suited to our needs.
-45% of the public feel that none of the main parties adequately represent their views on Britain’s future relationship with the EU, whilst only 29% believe that any of the main parties represents their view. Among Conservative supporters, only 35% feel that any of the main parties adequately represents their view on Britain’s relationship with the EU.
– First Poll of EU Election Voting Intentions: It found that the Conservatives lead the poll on 35%, followed by Labour on 29%, Lib Dems on 15% and UKIP on 7%. Notably, 10% of Conservative voters at a General Election would switch to UKIP at the European elections, compared to 2% of Labour voters and 1% of Liberal Democrat voters. Similarly, 10% of Lib Dem voters are planning to lend their vote to the Greens at the European elections.
These findings indicate that when it comes to European Parliamentary elections, people are prone to making voting choices based on specific EU issues, rather than just abiding by broad party lines, and if they feel strongly enough, will transfer their votes to single-issue parties. The UK political parties have relatively complicated and confusing positions when it comes to Europe, a fact highlighted by the re-emergence of Ken Clarke: we now witness the juxtaposition of eurosceptic David Cameron and pro-European Ken Clarke in the Conservatives and last year the Brown-Mandelson clash vis-à-vis the Euro was also well documented. In similar vein, the Liberal Democrats are something of an undefined quantity when it comes to a univocal opinion on Europe (although they are perceived as being slightly eurosceptic) and they obtain lower support in European elections than in national ones. Environmental issues do seem to inspire activism: environmental legislation is ever-present in the agenda of the European Parliament and where previously the Green Party was seen to embody the essence of environmental activism, now parties beyond the Greens have taken up similar campaigns. Hence it will be interesting to see whether we will continue to register similar swings between parties in the forthcoming election.
The discontent and confusion towards the EU that emerge from these recent statistics are undeniable. What’s needed to make progress is clarity and understanding of where the British political parties stand when it comes to Europe, not to mention of what the European Union really is and what the European Parliament actually does. The availability of balanced information and education are fundamental to achieving these aims.
The Civitas EU Education Project provides factsheets on the EU and will be holding its annual EU conference on Thursday 12th March 2009. In amongst the many talks and debates tailored to the curricular needs of sixth-form and university students, there will be the chance to cross-examine London MEP candidates from all four major parties, as well as to question Ken Clarke himself on the Lisbon Treaty. A talk on business regulation will elucidate students on the credit crunch and the situation as per UK versus EU interests. The economics talk will discuss whether financially speaking the EU can henceforth work as a bloc to help pull Member States out of the recession, as opposed to pulling against each other as seems to be the case thus far.
The European Union is increasingly pervasive in British politics, and as the only directly elected institution, the European Parliamentary elections provide the public’s best opportunity to influence the Union for the next five years; educating and informing people for that vote is crucial.