Economy
What price lockdown?
Tim Knox and Jim McConalogue, December 2020
As the UK government publishes its cost-benefit analysis of lockdown, Tim Knox and Jim McConalogue attempt to quantify the estimated costs that have been incurred in a new Working Paper, The cost of the cure. Their estimates can be used as a benchmark against which the government analysis can be measured. They find that the cost per year of life saved (QALY) ranges from… [Full Details]
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The Elephant in the Room: Why UK living standards may be lower in 2030 than they were in 2019 or even 2007 and what we can do to stop this happening
John Mills, October 2020
Covid-19 has forced the UK into an economic crisis, generating the deep recession with which we are now faced. To bounce back, this book argues, we need a fundamental rethink about the economic policies that have caused us to deindustrialise and to allow the massive imbalances – from which the UK economy currently suffers – to accumulate. Above all, this means reassessing the role of the… [Full Details]
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Conflicting estimates of the benefits of freer trade with the United States: the European Commission (2017) vs the Department for International Trade (2020)
Michael Burrage, September 2020
The Trade Secretary is reported to be prepared to rip up the Trade Department’s rulebooks on assessing deals in an attempt to improve how it measures the economic benefits of its post-Brexit 'Global Britain' project. Notably, when the UK struck its first major post-Brexit trade pact with Japan, critics were quick to point out it would seemingly boost UK GDP by only… [Full Details]
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A Long March through the Institutions: Understanding and responding to China’s influence in international organisations
Radomir Tylecote and Robert Clark, September 2020
The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated a reassessment among Western powers of their approach to China. This report by Radomir Tylecote and Robert Clark analyses China’s strategy towards international institutions and indicates that there are two ‘fronts’ to China’s contemporary expansionist strategy. • The first is to influence and potentially co-opt existing organisations such as UN bodies; • The second is to create rival… [Full Details]
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Overcrowded Islands? The challenges of demographic change for the United Kingdom
Lord Hodgson of Astley Abbotts CBE, July 2020
The UK population has grown fast in recent years – an increase of 6.6 million since 2001 with a further increase of 5.6 million expected by 2041. Even for a geographically small island, the UK is relatively crowded by comparison with France and Germany. Indeed, an overwhelming majority of British people think that the country is already overcrowded and that steps should be taken… [Full Details]
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The Road to Recovery: Reviving Manufacturing after Coronavirus
John Mills, July 2020
The global economy may well take much longer to recover fully from the shock caused by the coronavirus crisis than many initially expected – and hoped. With business closures and lockdowns forecast to throw the world into the deepest recession since the 1930s Great Depression, John Mills, the UK entrepreneur and economist with a life-long political background in the Labour Party, suggests that the UK… [Full Details]
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A hat trick of failures: How ‘the Blob’ led the British Government down the wrong path
Jim McConalogue and Tim Knox, June 2020
Britain has achieved an undesirable hat trick of failures in its Covid-19 pandemic response. Jim McConalogue and Tim Knox argue in this report that: Along with Spain, Britain has the highest excess death rate per capita in the world for the first half of 2020. The government’s reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic has also been one of the most financially expensive of… [Full Details]
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WTO vs the EU: an assessment of the relative merits of the UK’s trade relationships, 1999-2018
Michael Burrage and Phil Radford, June 2020
A fundamental issue at the heart of Britain’s political discourse since the EU referendum has been the comparison of merits of trade as an EU member and those under WTO rules. In this report, Michael Burrage and Phil Radford compare UK trade as conducted within these two trade relationships, in both goods and services, over the two decades from 1999 to 2018. By comparing… [Full Details]
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Rebooting Britain: How the UK economy can recover from Coronavirus
Julian Jessop and J.R. Shackleton, June 2020
The crisis does not signal a failure of capitalism nor the need for permanent increase in government intervention or public spending, says a new briefing paper from the IEA and Civitas. The risks of this crisis to the UK economy should not be downplayed; The decline will be huge – and lifting the lockdown may not be sufficient in itself to allow a robust and speedy… [Full Details]
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Economic recovery after the lockdown
David G. Green, May 2020
What should the Government do to encourage rapid economic recovery from the lockdown while pledging its one-nation commitment to spreading prosperity across all sections of society? In this report, David Green, Director of Civitas identifies how the coronavirus crisis has highlighted some structural weaknesses in our economic life – and offers twelve policy recommendations: Renewal of cities: localising investment power Retention of existing enterprises and… [Full Details]
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Britain’s Export Boom: and how to encourage it
Marcus Gibson, May 2020
It has been widely claimed by many leading voices of the UK’s institutions, corporations and organisations that the UK would face a national disaster if it left the European Union. But as Marcus Gibson argues, a whole generation of organisations and individuals have been proved wrong – given that the post-Brexit UK economy expanded and vital sectors in manufacturing experienced a revival after decades… [Full Details]
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The Great Disconnect: Why too many small business owners feel let down
Tim Knox, March 2020
For the past two decades, politicians from across the political spectrum have been vocal in their praise of small business – often to great acclaim when producing initiatives in government. But, do we know what business owners themselves think of government? As Tim Knox explains in this study on how micro-businesses feel about government, many policies and regulations have imposed heavy burdens on their operations… [Full Details]
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Left Behind: Why voters deserted social democracy - and how to win them back
John Mills, October 2019
Something has gone badly awry with social democracy in recent years. Not so long ago, government by centre-left parties seemed almost to be the natural order of affairs in stable and prosperous economies. Today the position is very different, as voters have turned their back on them across much of the west. Where such parties have fared better – as in the UK – this tends… [Full Details]
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Small Modular Reactors: What is the fuss about and why does it matter?
Candida Whitmill, November 2018
The UK needs to invest in a new breed of advanced modular reactors if it is to have any chance of meeting its decarbonisation targets over the coming years, energy entrepreneur Candida Whitmill argues in this paper. The government is supporting the development of small modular reactors (SMRs) – which are cheaper, safer and quicker to build than new nuclear power stations – as part of its… [Full Details]
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The Left Case for Brexit: Active government for an independent UK
Philip B. Whyman, September 2018
Two years on from the vote for Brexit, the process of withdrawal remains mired in debate about the kind of relationship an independent UK should be seeking with the European Union and the wider world. With the date for departure moving ever closer, there is a desperate need for a clear vision of what a post-Brexit Britain should look like and be trying to… [Full Details]
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Closing the Finance Gap: How a national investment bank could support enterprise and raise productivity
Justin Protts, February 2018
The UK economy is suffering from low productivity. This has been weighing heavily on GDP growth since the 2008 financial crisis, with output per worker stagnating at one of the lowest levels of any advanced economy. Raising productivity requires investment in productive enterprise. But UK investment, as a proportion of domestic output, has fallen from about a quarter of GDP in 1990, when it was… [Full Details]
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Britain's Demographic Challenge: The implications of the UK’s rapidly increasing population
Lord Hodgson of Astley Abbotts, September 2017
The population of the United Kingdom is growing at a rate of more than 500,000 a year, equivalent to a new town of about 10,000 people being created every week. On current projections, by 2039 there will be nearly 10 million more people living here – enough to populate Greater Manchester three times over. What are the implications of this for the country, and… [Full Details]
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Helping Businesses Thrive in Peripheral Rural Towns
Neil Powe and Rhona Pringle, July 2017
In this new report, Newcastle University academics Neil Powe and Rhona Pringle explore the scope for business-led growth and place-based revival in peripheral rural towns - those that are distant rather than accessible to large urban areas, and that are between 2,000 and 12,000 in population. The research aims to investigate whether businesses can thrive in peripheral rural towns and, if so… [Full Details]
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Going Through the Motions: The Industrial Strategy Green Paper
Rupert Darwall, June 2017
As the UK looks to benefit from the opportunities afforded by Brexit, Theresa May intends that the country’s economic success will be underpinned by a modern industrial strategy. The first outline of this was set out in a green paper published in January. In this pamphlet, Rupert Darwall argues that an industrial strategy is needed, in order to provide a coherent framework for policy… [Full Details]
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Britain’s Achilles Heel: Our Uncompetitive Pound
John Mills, June 2017
Why is economic growth and prosperity in the world so patchy and unstable? Why have incomes for so many people stagnated? Why is there so much inequality – and why is there so much debt? Are all these conditions inevitable or are there more effective ways of ordering our economic affairs to achieve better results? In this new book, the economist and entrepreneur John Mills confronts… [Full Details]
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Competitiveness Before Carbon: How to safeguard Britain's just about managing companies by making energy costs a source of competitive advantage for UK firms
Glyn Gaskarth, February 2017
A series of policy initiatives since 2000 have rendered energy supply in the UK unstable and expensive. This has been driven by a desire to reduce carbon emissions in response to concerns about global warming. The effect, however, has been to drive energy intensive industries overseas, to countries with less carbon efficient means of production, resulting in a net increase in per capita global emissions… [Full Details]
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Inclusive Capitalism: How we can make independence work for everyone
David G. Green, February 2017
The UK is taking back its independence at a time when some of the unspoken assumptions of recent times are shifting. To speak of the political left or the political right no longer has a clear meaning. Some say that the real divide is between globalisation and nationalism, but this distinction fails to capture what is really at stake, namely the accountability of political power… [Full Details]
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The Real Sterling Crisis: Why the UK needs a policy to keep the exchange rate down
Roger Bootle and John Mills, September 2016
The fall in the value of sterling since the vote for Brexit has had commentators wringing their hands with concern. But why are so many so quick to assume that a cheaper pound is a bad thing? The truth, as leading economists Roger Bootle and John Mills explain here, is that the British economy has suffered from an overvalued pound for many years. It has… [Full Details]
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Defence Acquisition for the Twenty-first Century
Bernard Jenkin (ed.), June 2015
The recent campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq came at a heavy cost to Britain's military capabilities. However, rather than replenish the forces with the equipment they needed, spending reviews in the last parliament saw defence expenditure so drastically reduced that the equipment used up in the campaigns cannot be replaced. These cuts have left all three services with large deficiencies in key areas. There… [Full Details]
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There is An Alternative: An economic strategy for 2015
John Mills, March 2014
The economic recovery has finally taken hold, but serious doubts remain about its strength, its sustainability and its ability to deliver improved living standards for all. In this hard-hitting critique of the UK's growth prospects, entrepreneur and economist John Mills warns that the current economic model is unsustainable and risks years of stagnation. By the time of the 2015 general election, living standards… [Full Details]
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Transforming the Market: Towards a new political economy
Patrick Diamond, November 2013
Britain is at risk of a return to the unsustainable debt-fuelled growth that left the economy so badly exposed during the 2008 financial crisis. While recent growth figures have been encouraging, little has been done on the more fundamental task of rebalancing the economy and tackling the chronic short-termism which has held the UK back. Patrick Diamond, a former Downing Street adviser under… [Full Details]
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A Competitive Pound for a Stronger Economy
John Mills, October 2013
Recessions happen because there is insufficient demand to keep everyone occupied productively. The only solution is more demand, not less. Increases in demand, however, require major contributions from both the private sector as well as the public sector to be sustainable. Economists and policy makers, however, have a long history of looking the other way and ignoring the need for more demand to combat recessions… [Full Details]
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An Exchange Rate Target: Why we need one
John Mills, April 2013
It is increasingly being recognised that the over-valued pound is holding back the competitiveness of British exporters. While sterling has fallen since 2008, the advantages have not been felt because of continued uncertainty. In this urgent and insightful publication, the economist and entrepreneur, John Mills, argues that the government should set a competitive exchange rate target and take active measures to achieve it. As… [Full Details]
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Beyond the plc
Greg Fisher and Paul Ormerod, April 2013
What is wrong with contemporary capitalism? Was the financial crisis of 2008 caused by deep structural problems in the way firms are organised? Here two of Britain's most creative thinkers tackle these questions head on, showing that the UK lacks diversity in its forms of corporate governance and is too reliant on the plc model, which has been shown in recent years to have… [Full Details]
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Rebalancing the British Economy
Edited by Tristram Hunt, March 2013
No other country in the world - including the United States - has allowed such a strong anti-interventionist economic policy to take hold in recent years. We, in Britain, have been restricted by the economic disasters of the 70s - which eventually required a bailout of over $4billion from the IMF - to such an extent that laissez-faire has ruled our ideological roost for several decades. But… [Full Details]
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The German Sparkassen (Savings Banks)
Christopher Simpson, January 2013
Commentators across the political spectrum are pointing to the German system of local banks as a model for Britain to emulate. In this report, Christopher Simpson explains how these local German Savings Banks (Sparkassen) operate. He describes the history, structure and organisation of the Sparkassen, which are only allowed to lend within a geographically defined area and, as a result, develop close relationships with their… [Full Details]
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Selling Circuits Short: Improving the prospects of the British electronics industry
Stephen L. Clarke & Georgia Plank, August 2012
Electronics products are pervasive but we tend to take their presence for granted. Those which do attract public interest are consumer electronics whose production is often dominated by companies in the Far East. This perhaps explains why Britain’s electronics industry has been undervalued, with the Government failing to recognise its significance in the UK’s struggle for economic growth. Selling Circuits Short is a… [Full Details]
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The Boomerang Economy: Why British offshored manufacturers are returning home and how to maximise this trend
Laurence Kotlikoff, July 2012
Over the last decade, the offshoring of UK industry has been well publicised. Now we are beginning to see a new trend: onshoring – the return of British manufacturers from overseas. In The Boomerang Economy, David Merlin-Jones examines the reasons why this is happening and how the UK government can encourage it… [Full Details]
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The Economic Consequences of the Vickers Commission
Laurence Kotlikoff, July 2012
The Vickers Commission was meant to put a stop to this by safeguarding ordinary retail banks from the gambling of investment banks. Laurence J. Kotlikoff shows that the Vickers proposals fail to do this. Even banks deemed ‘good’ can turn bad, since no one can predict which ‘safe’ assets will actually be safe in the future. Moreover, ‘bad’ banks are still left too big and… [Full Details]
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Street Cred: Local Banks and Strong Local Economies
Stephen L. Clarke, May 2012
Imagine an industry dominated by businesses that offer poor service, enjoy a terrible public image and lose billions of pounds. They don't go bust, but increase their market share under a supportive regulatory system. A ludicrous scenario, of course - but it describes much of Britain's banking industry today. Street Cred examines the failings of the current British banking market and the lessons that… [Full Details]
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Extending Lending: The Case for a State-backed Investment Bank
David Merlin-Jones, February 2012
In this report, David Merlin-Jones argues that the only way to revive lending permanently is to go beyond restructuring commercial banks. Britain needs a new state-backed investment bank, described here as the 'Enterprise Bank' (EB). This would be able to raise cheap credit in the financial markets by using the UK's AAA credit rating and could pass this on to borrowers. It… [Full Details]
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CO2.1: Beyond the EU's Emissions Trading System
David Merlin-Jones, January 2012
Merlin-Jones argues that the EU's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) will have no effect on many companies' emissions until 2016-18, over a decade after it came into force. It is so ineffective and expensive that attempts to patch it up are doomed to failure. A new approach to carbon reduction is required. He proposes a new flat carbon tax to replace the… [Full Details]
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The Green Mirage: Why a low-carbon economy may be further off than we think
John Constable, August 2011
The move towards a low-carbon economy has been described as the second industrial revolution. As state mandates drive the adoption of renewable energy sources, we are assured that multiple benefits will result. In The Green Mirage, John Constable challenges this optimistic scenario. Constable marshals evidence suggesting that target-led, state-managed and subsidy-driven clean energy policies are likely to cause the remature adoption… [Full Details]
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Reviving British Manufacturing: Why? What? How?
Alan Reece, July 2011
Alan Reece, an academic-turned-successful-manufacturer, argues that we must revive our manufacturing industry. However, the problems are enormous. Between 1997 and 2008 manufacturing output remained flat at around GBP150 billion a year. Allowing for inflation, this represents a real reduction of around GBP3.5 billion a year. Alan Reece argues that we need to increase our output of goods by GBP10 billion a… [Full Details]
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Chain Reactions: How the Chemical Industry Can Shrink Our Carbon Footprint
David Merlin-Jones, May 2011
Drawing on interviews with experts in the chemical industry, Merlin- Jones argues that the chemicals sector is the key to reducing UK carbon emissions and ensuring economic prosperity. Britain needs a policy that ensures an even footing for chemical firms competing internationally, by keeping the UK's energy costs attractive. Only this will allow chemical firms to provide the products vital to combatting climate change… [Full Details]
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Prosperity with Principles: Some policies for economic growth
David Green, April 2010
The recession has sparked a debate about the renewal of manufacturing. It is now generally accepted that the government should create the conditions in which manufacturing can flourish. How it should do so is strongly disputed. David Green presents new thinking on how to encourage economic growth without compromising our commitment to free enterprise.He advocates 'prosperity policy', which does not dismiss state aid, but… [Full Details]
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Nations Choose Prosperity Why Britain Needs an Industrial Policy
Ruth Lea, July 2009
After years of being seen as outmoded, industrial policy is back on the political agenda, this time renamed 'industrial activism'. There is a widespread concern, fuelled by the crisis in the financial sector, that we have been too complacent about the decline in UK manufacturing, assuming that service industries would guarantee continuing prosperity with or without a vibrant manufacturing base. No one argues for protectionism… [Full Details]
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Developing SBRI: Using procurement to spur innovation
Civitas, June 2017
Supporting Industry Post-Brexit: Supply chains and the automotive industry
Justin Protts, May 2017
Boosting UK Exports: Improving export finance for small businesses
Christian Stensrud, March 2017
Reports
Investigating the relationship between tax credits and wages offered by employers
Rajen Paul, February 2016
Losing Control: A study of mergers and acquisitions in the British aerospace supply chain
Norman Smith & Joseph Wright, June 2015
Ending the Free Ride: Making multinationals pay their way
Peter Connell, November 2014
Articles for the Media
The two big tests awaiting the Prime Minister's 'Mayconomics' agenda
David Green, The Telegraph, August 2016
Six radical, Conservative ideas to stimulate the Brexit economy
David Green,Telegraph , July 2016
Britain may pay price for closer ties with China
Daniel Bentley, The Yorkshire Post , October 2015